The twin deficit theory in a dynamic consistent stock-flow model for an open economy

Vol. 42 No. 3 (2022)

Jul-Sep / 2022
Published August 17, 2022
PDF-Portuguese (Português (Brasil))
PDF-Portuguese (Português (Brasil))

How to Cite

Mellini, André, and Guilherme Jonas Costa da Silva. 2022. “The Twin Deficit Theory in a Dynamic Consistent Stock-Flow Model for an Open Economy”. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 42 (3):761-84. https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572022-3237.

The twin deficit theory in a dynamic consistent stock-flow model for an open economy

André Mellini
Doutorando pelo Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia da Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (PPGE/UFU).
Guilherme Jonas Costa da Silva
Professor do Instituto de Economia da Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (IE/UFU).
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 42 No. 3 (2022), Jul-Sep / 2022, Pages 761-784

Abstract

This paper aims to incorporate explicitly the twin deficits theory in a stock-flow
consistent model to analyze the impact of fiscal policy and public debt dynamics in a post-
Keynesian model, investigating the effects and limitations. Even rejecting many neoclassical
hypotheses, fiscal policy has limitation to stimulate permanently economic growth because
if it’s incompatible with balance of payment equilibrium, net external debt would rise and
become unsustainable. Finally, this hypothesis is tested empirically and it is verified that the
dynamics of the fiscal policy and external position are associated when specified according
to Godley and Cripps (1983) and modified by Pérez Caldentey (2007).

JEL Classification: E12; E62; F41; F43.


Keywords: Stock-flow consistent fiscal policy external constraint twin deficits post- Keynesianism