Technological progress, human capital, and employment rate: an empirical analysis using P-ARDL models from 1960-2019

Vol. 45 No. 1 (2025)

Jan-Mar / 2025
Published December 27, 2024
PDF-English
PDF-English

How to Cite

Pereira, Daisy Caroline Nascimento, and Guilherme Jonas Costa da Silva. 2024. “Technological Progress, Human Capital, and Employment Rate: An Empirical Analysis Using P-ARDL Models from 1960-2019”. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 45 (1):86-103. https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572025-3472.

Technological progress, human capital, and employment rate: an empirical analysis using P-ARDL models from 1960-2019

Daisy Caroline Nascimento Pereira
PhD in Economics at the Federal University of Uberlândia, Uberlândia/MG, Brasil.
Guilherme Jonas Costa da Silva
Associate Professor at the Federal University of Uberlândia, Uberlândia/MG, Brasil and Postdoctoral Researcher in Economics at the Federal University of Paraná.
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 45 No. 1 (2025), Jan-Mar / 2025, Pages 86-103

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the effects of technological progress, education,
and human capital on employment in the short and long run using an econometric ARDL
model for the period 1960-2019 across developed and developing countries. The hypothesis
was that technological progress destroys jobs at a faster rate than investments in education
and human capital can create. In the short run, the results confirmed the hypothesis that
technological progress destroys relatively more jobs. However, in the long run, the results
showed that the coefficients for education and human capital in developing countries out-weighed those for technological progress, thus rejecting the hypothesis for this group of
countries in the long run. For developed countries, coefficients for technological progress
and investments in human capital were positive and significant.

JEL Classification: E24; J24; O33.


Keywords: Technological Progress Human Capital Employment