Vol. 45 No. 1 (2025): Jan-Mar / 2025


Vol. 45 No. 1 (2025)

Jan-Mar / 2025
Published December 27, 2024

Article


Modern services, real exchange rate and economic growth
Wallace Marcelino Pereira, Fabricio J. Missio, Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Jr.
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572025-3562

This paper explores the effects of changes in the real exchange rate (RER) level
on the performance of the modern services sector. The hypothesis is that sustaining a competitive
RER contributes to improving the performance of modern services. To do so, we estimated
econometric models based on the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) for a
sample of 24 countries between 2000 and 2014. The results suggest that the RER positively
affects the modern services sector in terms of output, employment, and a structural change
index.

JEL Classification: O1; O2; C23.


Consumer goods and services inflation in Latin America during the COVID-19 pandemic
Víctor Manuel Cuevas Ahumada, Ignacio Perrotini Hernández
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572025-3580

Consumer goods inflation significantly exceeded consumer services inflation in
many nations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, this paper evaluates the key drivers
of goods prices and services prices in eight Latin American countries during that period.
To that end, we employ two fixed effects panel data models involving such nations and
monthly data from January 2020 to December 2022. The models’ specification allows for assessing
the impact of fiscal and monetary policies, exchange rate fluctuations, and two pandemic-
related variables, on goods prices and services prices. The models are estimated
through two-stage least squares complemented with other remedial measures.

JEL Classification: C33; C36; E31; F41.


Latin American Structuralists and Inertial Inflation Theories
Hugo C. Iasco-Pereira, André Roncaglia, Marcelo Curado
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572025-3644

This study aims at to re-examinate the theories of inertial inflation in light of the
methodological debates on the determinants of the production of scientific knowledge in order
to understand whether inertialism was a scientific revolution in relation to the macroeconomic
paradigm of the first half of the 1980s and/or a continuation of the approach of the
1950s structuralists. For that, the study sought to identify a hard core of common theoretical
elements, by reconstituting the debate between monetarists and inertialists in the 1980s as a
second round of the monetarist-structuralist controversy of the 1950s. The results indicate
that inertialism is best placed as an alternative research program to the mainstream of the 1980s, but that it maintains a high degree of originality as a theoretical development from
the Latin American structuralist approach.

JEL Classification: B21, B59, E31.


Global financial orders and credit rating agencies: disruptions and adaptations
Pedro Lange Machado
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572025-3599

This paper addresses the possible disruption of the global financial order (GFO)
based on the behavior of S&P Global, Moody’s and Fitch Ratings, century-old rating agencies,
in face of three potentially disruptive crises: the 2008 global financial crisis, the Covid-
19 pandemic and the climate breakdown. The main argument is that, historically, these agencies
have adapted to the GFOs in force, mirroring their institutional and ideological parameters
and thereby reflecting international tendencies. Based on an institutional historical analysis
and in light of the behavior of the agencies in the crises above, it calls into question the GFO
transition discussed by scholarship.

JEL Classification: F50; G24; N20.


Technological progress, human capital, and employment rate: an empirical analysis using P-ARDL models from 1960-2019
Daisy Caroline Nascimento Pereira, Guilherme Jonas Costa da Silva
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572025-3472

This paper aims to investigate the effects of technological progress, education,
and human capital on employment in the short and long run using an econometric ARDL
model for the period 1960-2019 across developed and developing countries. The hypothesis
was that technological progress destroys jobs at a faster rate than investments in education
and human capital can create. In the short run, the results confirmed the hypothesis that
technological progress destroys relatively more jobs. However, in the long run, the results
showed that the coefficients for education and human capital in developing countries out-weighed those for technological progress, thus rejecting the hypothesis for this group of
countries in the long run. For developed countries, coefficients for technological progress
and investments in human capital were positive and significant.

JEL Classification: E24; J24; O33.


Putnam, Sen, and Smith: A critical reflection on the Neoclassical Economic Theory
Luiz Antonio de Oliveira Lima
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572025-3666

The article aims to show the fragility of the epistemological bases of the current
conventional economic theory, especially in its neoclassical view. This criticism is based on
the vision of the Indian economist Amartya Sen and the foundations and objective of Adam
Smith’s “Wealth of Nations”, as well as on the work of the philosopher and logician W. V.
Quine and the logician H. Putnam. It also intends to suggest an alternative paradigm of analysis
based on P. Sraffa and John Von Neuman.

JEL Classification: PI6.


Contemporary industrial policy and challenges to South America and Brazil
Carlos Aguiar de Medeiros, Esther Majerowicz
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572025-3638

We seek to identify the major vectors reconfiguring contemporary industrial policy
in the US and the European Union to inform policymaking in South America and Brazil
given their specific challenges to economic development. We stress two main vectors, national
security and environmental concerns, which have unleashed a tendency toward the nationalization
or regionalization of supply chains through import substitution. They have also been grounding industrial policy on comprehensive planning embracing several sectors and
activities. The essential question for South America and Brazil is to combine these concerns
departing from a reality underpinned by deindustrialization, environmental degradation (deforestation),
and social marginalization.

JEL Classification: L50; O14; O38; P11; F13.


Comparative analysis of different heterodox interpretations about the end of the “Golden Age” of Western capitalism
Luciano Alencar Barros, Carlos Pinkusfeld Bastos
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572025-3654

This paper aims to contribute to the understanding, in the field of heterodoxy, of
the end of the Golden Age of Western capitalism. In this regard, this object is examined
through a comparative analysis of three different theoretical approaches, which have in common
the adoption of the Principle of Effective Demand and the influence of Marx’s framework:
the regulation school and the neo-Kaleckian and Sraffian approaches.

JEL Classification: B22; E11; P16.


Artificial Intelligence in the development strategy of contemporary China
Célio Hiratuka, Antônio Carlos Diegues
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572025-3636

This paper analyzes the role of Artificial Intelligence in the broader context of
China’s development strategy, marked by the quest to move to a less capital and more knowledge-
intensive model. Chinese Science, Technology, and Innovation policies are discussed,
emphasizing endogenous innovation and Artificial Intelligence’s role in this context. Furthermore,
some indicators are analyzed to compare China’s current position with other countries,
particularly the United States, in terms of Artificial Intelligence knowledge generation, technology
development, and business involvement.

JEL Classification: O33; O31.


The Eloquent Silence: why are development theories silent about racism?
Silvio Luiz de Almeida, Leda Maria Paulani
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572025-3686

The complete disconnection between the parameters and variables that guide the
discussion on economic development, on the one hand, and, on the other, the unequivocal
existence of discriminatory processes that are based on racialized criteria, is the theme of this
work. Using an approach based on materialist political economy, we seek to reflect on the
reasons for this eloquent silence. As a result, we point out new elements that highlight the
structural character of racism, as supported by Almeida (2020).

JEL Classification: O10; J7; J15.