Sectoral deindustrialization and long-run stagnation of Brazilian manufacturing
In Brazil and elsewhere in the world, diagnoses of deindustrialization are
concentrated in aggregate manufacturing, so policies can be ineffective if deindustrialization
has a sector-specific component. This study quantifies and analyses deindustrialization
for the individualised manufacturing sub-sectors. To do this, unpublished series of the
manufacturing sub-sectors’ share in the Brazilian GDP from 1970 to 2016 were created,
based on official IBGE data. The results show that the manufacturing sub-sectors have deindustrialised at different intensities and periods of aggregate manufacturing, and a subsectoral
approach reveals traces ignored by the literature on the quality of deindustrialization.
We conclude that the Brazilian deindustrialization is normal (and expected) for the labourintensive
manufacturing sub-sectors, but premature (and undesirable) for the technologyintensive
sub-sectors. Therefore, Brazilian deindustrialization has negative consequences for
the country’s future scientific and technological development.
JEL Classification: O14; L6; L16.
Keywords: Sectoral deindustrialization industrial development sectoral heterogeneity structural change