Uncertainty and non-ergodicity: critique of the neoclassical

Vol. 34 No. 2 (2014)

Apr-Jun / 2014
Published April 1, 2014
PDF-Portuguese (Português (Brasil))
PDF-Portuguese (Português (Brasil))

How to Cite

Mallet Siqueira Campos, Marcelo, and Tulio Chiarini. 2014. “Uncertainty and Non-Ergodicity: Critique of the Neoclassical”. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 34 (2):294-316. https://centrodeeconomiapolitica.org/repojs/index.php/journal/article/view/274.

Uncertainty and non-ergodicity: critique of the neoclassical

Marcelo Mallet Siqueira Campos
Professor do IFRS, campus Bento Gonçalves.
Tulio Chiarini
Analista em C&T do INT/MCTI.
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 34 No. 2 (2014), Apr-Jun / 2014, Pages 294-316

Abstract

The starting point of this essay is to show that, in our view, the problem of the traditional economics is not in the deductive method nor the mathematical methods used, but to attribute to economic agents 'power' on the future and prescribe the existence of ergodic stochastic processes in their economic analyzes. Thus, building a theory on the ground whose bases are not able to sustain a proper understanding of the world, mainstream economics has difficulties in using the modeling for establishing deductions and conclusions that help understanding the system. Thus, the logical-mathematical rigor in economic models and deduction can be used with appropriate axioms, which is not the case of mainstream economics. Our hypothesis is that the inability of the mainstream in predicting economic crisis is due to the non-recognition of some principles that best describe the dynamics of financialized contemporary capitalism, as the principles of non-ergodicity and Keynesian uncertainty.

JEL Classification: E00; E02; E12.


Keywords: Uncertainty non-ergodicity financial crisis