China: long-run economic growth

Vol. 26 No. 3 (2006)

Jul-Sep / 2006
Published July 1, 2006
PDF-Portuguese (Português (Brasil))
PDF-Portuguese (Português (Brasil))

How to Cite

Vieira, Flávio Vilela. 2006. “China: Long-Run Economic Growth”. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 26 (3):401-24. https://centrodeeconomiapolitica.org/repojs/index.php/journal/article/view/607.

China: long-run economic growth

Flávio Vilela Vieira
Professor do Instituto de Economia da Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (IE/UFU), PhD em Economia — University of New Hampshire. Pesquisador do CNPq.
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 26 No. 3 (2006), Jul-Sep / 2006, Pages 401-424

Abstract

 The paper aims to understand on theoretical and empirical grounds the main determinants of China´s long run growth. The econometric analysis suggests the exchange rate as the most important variable in explaining China´s economic growth and in a different model specification using growth rates of exports instead of trade openness, the exchange rate remains as the main variable but export performance has almost the same relevance. Exchange rate policy seems to be a direct road to explain economic growth in China and there is no clear sign that China will increase exchange rate flexibility in the same pattern and pace suggested by most trade partners, which cannot be criticized based on China´s own interest in sustaining its export performance and economic growth.

JEL Classification: O40; O53; C22.


Keywords: China long-run economic growth time series analysis