Vol. 5 No. 1 (1985): Jan-Mar / 1985


Vol. 5 No. 1 (1985)

Jan-Mar / 1985
Published January 1, 1985

Article


Recession and interest rates: Brazil in the early 1980s
Pérsio Arida, André Lara Resende
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571985-1005

The Brazilian economy faces the deepest contraction in its economic activity of
the last sixty years. The declining output per capita for the period 1980/83 merits comparison
with that of the period 1928/33. Using semi-official, conservative more severe than that
of 1928/33. That current pression was unleashed by growing difficulties in meeting obligations
in foreign exchange is beyond doubt. This article argues that the present form of adjustment
to the external crisis is inadequate. The burden of external debt was needlessly
magnified by policies which erroneously identify the interest rate as the crucial adjustment
variable.

JEL Classification: F34; O40; E61.


The ‘’non-universality’’ theory of economic theory
Dercio Garcia Munhoz
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571985-1021

To accept that the postulates of the Economic Theory have validity in any country
is to suppose the universality of the theory. The examination of the process of cost formation
in the productive system and of the income sources shows that the imposition of new
cost components in the economy brings movements for income accommodation, through
the acceleration of inflation up to a new equilibrium level. However, the new equilibrium
rate will depend on three factors: the share of the new costs components in the GDP; the
participation of the contractual income, like wages, in the GDP; and the periodicity of the
contractual income correction. These factors are different from country to country, refusing
the validity of the monetary theory supposition. This article shows that it is possible to conclude
on the “non-universality” of the Economic Theory. At last, if is correct to admit that
the larger the share of contractual incomes in the GDP more stable will be the economy, then
the income policy would be a strategic factor for the stabilization policy when the economy
is subject to cost shocks.

JEL Classification: B41; P10.


The debt problem and options for its reduction
Rudiger Dornbusch
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571985-1040

External debt problems, like wars, are common occurrences in a broader historical
perspective. They occur every thirty or fifty years, much in the same circumstances. And
when they do occur, they put at odds the bondholder and the debtor and leave fundamental
imprints on history, though perhaps not, in any lasting fashion, on the memories of lenders.
Hitler’s Germany or Latin America’s import substitution philosophy was the outgrowth of
the last world debt crisis. Today Latin America is once again in a debt crisis and the debate
puts in confrontation those who call for dramatic action, including even repudiation, and
others who suggest the problem is minor and that it can be solved by time, adjustment, and
some typing-over finance – the muddling through strategy.

JEL Classification: F34; N16; N26.


Indebtedness and poverty
Pierre Salama
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571985-1069

Today the indebtment level is raised and the responsibility of this situation
doesn’t fall back on the International Monetary Fund or the banks. The indebtment has origin
in the functioning of accumulation regimes and in the economic policy followed in the
70’s. The modification of the world economic situation, the crossing of an indebtment international
economy with liquidity to an economy without liquidity contributed so much to
the debt become autonomous in relation to the productive system. The dollarization of economies
and liabilities of public enterprises, the fall of real wages, the increasing impoverishment
of new stratums of population, the aggravation of alimentary misery in the cities, constitute
the consequences of this indebtment.

JEL Classification: F34; O15.


The composition of production in the expansion process of the Brazilian agricultural frontier
Fernando Homem de Melo
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571985-1086

In this paper we analysed the growth process in the agriculture of Brazil’s Center-
West region during 1977/84 as compared with the one for the older South and Southeast
regions. Emphasis was given to the causal factors of the crop composition in the recent
past as well as the economic variables likely to be important in the near future. Our conclusion
indicated the difficulties faced by the production of domestic foods as compared
to exportables and sugarcane in the Center-West region, mainly because of an unbalanced
pattern of technical innovations and a very favorable exchange rate policy. A compensatory
policy would then be required to achieve the objective of increased domestic food production.

JEL Classification: Q11; Q13; Q18; R14.


Land price, interest rate and financial accumulation in Brazil
Cláudio Antonio G. Egler
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571985-1112

The relationship between the land price and the financial system in Brazil has
been analysed under different points of view, but little or none significance is given to the
interest rate as a factor that underlies the land market with the financial accumulation. The
main purpose of this work is to analyse, in a historical perspective, how the land price expresses
different stages of development of the financial activities and how the interest rate
makes a bridge between land and capital markets.

JEL Classification: Q15; G12.

Notes and Comments


The end of inflation in the Lisarb kingdom
Edmar Bacha
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571985-1136

In a humorous short story, the author addresses the difficulties in controlling
and understanding the inflation phenomenon.

JEL Classification: E31; A10.


Wages: a possible compromise alternative (comments)
Claudio S. Dedecca, Fabia Tuma
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571985-1144

This comment is a response to the wage policy proposal enacted by Paulo
Renato Souza in the vol 4, n. 2/1984 issue of the Brazilian Journal of Political Economy. Our
main point is the challenge of deciding the correct level of average wage to be preserved in
a high inflation context.

JEL Classification: E31; J38; J31.


The monetary budget and the socialization of losses from the exchange rate crisis
Eduardo Luis Lundberg
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571985-1148

This is a critique of the current state of the monetary budget, considering that
the government is socialising the burden and losses of private agents related to their external
debt and the dollarization of the internal debt.

JEL Classification: F34.